Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) Week 1

Justin Polizzi
@EzPolizzi_21

Here are my DFS notes for Week 1 of the NFL season! Enjoy and Good luck!

LIKES:

Aaron Rodgers – Fanduel- $9,800. Draft Kings- $8,100.

Everyone’s expecting a shootout in what would be the last game to be played at the Georgia Dome and rightfully so. The last time these two teams faced off was week 8 where the Falcons pulled out a 32-33 last second victory (33 seconds to be exact.) Rodgers threw for 4 touchdowns and passed for 246 yards with adding an additional 60 on the ground. The packers had no run game at the time so they relied heavily on Rodgers and I believe they do so again this week. Even with Ty Montgomery emerging as a threat out the backfield, he won’t see 2 rushing TDs like he did last week against the Cowboys. Falcons are ranked 28th against the pass; Invest in Rodgers.

Randall Cobb –  Fanduel- $6,500. Draft Kings- $5,900.

I usually like to pair up my QB will at least one of his weapons on the offensive side of the ball. With Rodgers, I’m picking, ironically, the healthiest WR on the team; Cobb. McCarthy stated just this afternoon that if Sunday was a regular season game, Jordy, Adams & Allison would all be ruled out. I still believe the likes of Adams and Allison playing, but even against the Falcons secondary, how much of a factor will they be. Cobb has 12 receptions on 15 targets for 178 yards in 2 playoff games. Adams has 13 receptions on 22 targets for 201 yards. Cook, 11 receptions on 20 targets for 151 yards. Take away Cobbs Hail Mary TD grab and he still has as many TDs than Adams/Cook combined. Targets should increase for Cobb against a horrible secondary he failed to play against back in week 8.

LeGarrette Blount – Fanduel- $6,500 Draft Kings- $4,400

Pick your poison, one of these backs are going to have a big game against a Steelers run defense, that according to ESPN, gives up the 6th most points to RBs AT 19.1 pg. They’ve allowed 5 TD receptions by RBs, tied second with 5 other teams and behind the Colts & Falcons for first most by 1 TD. Last week we saw Blount’s workload decrease significantly. This may have been due primarily because of the illness he was fighting all week; could’ve been because Lewis had the hot hand. Whatever the reason may be, both these backs will be key factors in this game. I don’t believe this game will be a shootout like the NFC Championship game, but I do however see one of them scoring. My bet? 

Mohammed Sanu: Torched the Packers defense last time around, with a banged up Julio and Gabriel, Sanu can find the endzone multiple times. He also out snapped both last week against Seattle.

 Steelers TE: Whether it’s a healthy Green or mediocre James, the starting TE for the AFC Championship game will be a key factor for Big Ben. He needs another weapon to emerge other than Bell and AB who were the only ones to be factors in that first meeting against the Patriots that Big Ben missed. Green is still in concussion-protocol, I still like Jessie James as my TE if I can’t afford the likes of Cook.

DISLIKES:

Ben Roethlisberger–  Fanduel- $8,000. Draft Kings- $5,800.

The cheapest QB of em’ all this weekend and I couldn’t agree more. I’ll start off by saying Big Ben has 2 TD throws in 2 playoff games so far these playoffs; BOTH of which came on catch and runs by no other than AB. Miami, ranked 15th best pass defense, allowed the 4th most points to QBs. Big Ben managed 14.88 fantasy points via Fanduel. The following week against the 18th ranked pass defense, the Kansas City Chiefs, Ben managed 8.06 fantasy points…wow. Now yes, the Steelers didn’t score one single TD all afternoon but Big Ben has been pedestrian all season in the redzone. Here are his redzone numbers for 2016, 32 completions 69 on attempts with a 13 to 3 TD:INT ratio.

  • Andy Dalton – 37 for 72 with 13:0 ratio.
  • Brock Osweiler- 31 for 62 13:1 ratio.
  • Joe Flacco – 44 for 76 14:3 ratio.

All QBs who ARE NOT better than Big Ben, performed better. Big Ben is also just not the same QB away than he is at home. Here are his splits according to ESPN for 2016,

                     CMP     ATT         YDS         CMP%      AVG      LNG     TD     INT     SACK    RAT     

TOTAL 328 509 3,819 64.4 7.50 72 29 13 17 95.4
HOME 160 226 1,915 70.8 8.47 72 20 5 7 116.7
AWAY 168 283 1,904 59.4 6.73 42 9 8 10 78.4

Martellus Bennet–  Fanduel- $5,500. Draft Kings- $3,300

For a TE in a high scoring Patriots offense, Bennet has been very inconsistent. Bennett is that player who can receive 10 targets and catch 2 TDs or get 3 targets and still manage a TD. If this is a standard league I’m probably not talking about him. But .5 point ppr, volume and consistency is key. In his last 6 games, Bennett has averaged just under 4 targets per game. In that same span, Brady has averaged 36 pass attempts. That means for every 9 throws, Bennnett will receive a target. With a catching rate of 61%(which isn’t bad at all,) that is 11% down from his 72% catch rate weeks 1-12 during the season. A healthy Dion Lewis and the addition of Michael Floyd may also take away targets as we all know, Brady spreads the ball better than anyone. I’d TRY to avoid Bennet. But being that he’s the most talented TE available, can’t blame you for taking him.

Additional dislikes: Taylor Gabriel: The fact he’s more expensive than Sanu and played 50% less snaps, how could you take him. Last week Gabriel 24 of 72 snaps. He’s a big play waiting to happen and it absolutely could happen in this game, but like I’ve preached, VOLUME is key.

Eli Rogers: This guy has been a bargain price week in and week out and seems to continue to disappoint both fantasy wise and production wise. Like it or not, this guy is the Steelers 3rd best option in the passing game with Martavis Bryant suspended all season and Ladarius Green injured. Big Ben is going to have to find other options outside AB and Bell and I think he’ll look more Jessie James way than Rogers. However, Rogers does have volume, just hasn’t turned that volume into much production.  

MY RISKY STARTS: Le’veon Bell: This one hurts as Bell is my favorite player in the NFL (this coming from a Giants fan.) Bell’s receiving stats haven’t been as amazing in the playoffs that they were during the season. In these playoffs he has 4 catches on 7 targets for 3 yards. The Steelers have finally come to their senses and decided to hand the ball off more to Bell than dump it off and that takes away from his fantasy value when discussing PPR. I’m still taking Bell in my draft-kings team because he’s just to amazing and such a talented player it’s hard not to invest the money in him.

Julio Jones: In a game that can be a shootout and possibly the best game of the postseason yet, a banged up Julio is a RISKY Julio. In my opinion, Julio is the 3rd best WR in the league. But he didn’t even play the most snaps on his team at WR and that concerns me. He’s been pampered by a toe injury all season. I rather pay less and get AB who killed New England last time with Landry Jones at QB; he’ll have Big Ben at the realm this time.  TAKE NOTE: Fanduel AB is cheaper, draftkings Julio is cheaper, I’d go Julio in draftkings.

Throw A Dart: Mohammed Sanu: He’s one of my likes this week but yet he’s a “throw a dart” and live with your choice type player every week. If Sanu can have anything close to the numbers he had last week or even the last time he faced the Packers, you’ll be more than just fine.

Austin Hooper: 5 receptions on 5 targets last time these two teams faced off. He’s TD reliant but the best TE Falcons currently have. Plus, he’s back from injury, Matt Ryan has another weapon in the red zone now.

TD RELIANT: If you like banking on touchdowns, these 2 cheap RBs will get you there:

Tevin Coleman: He gets just as many touches as Freeman, BUT, he isn’t as talented. Coleman only exceeded more than 10 points in a game once when he DIDN’T get a TD. He’s a big play waiting to happen, but for his price, may be worth the TD reliant risk.

Ty Montgomery: Since becoming the new RB for the packers, Ty also has only eclipsed more than 10 points once when not scoring a TD. But he gets about 15 touches a game and last week the Packers were finally able to get him into the endzone from inside the 10. I see them trying at least once more this weekend. The matchup is there, however.

 

GOODLUCK THIS WEEK DFS PLAYERS!

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